[微軟] 什麼是"傑文斯悖論",微軟CEO急了!深夜發帖反駁
By Anita Hamilton
作者：安妮塔·漢密爾頓
A late-night post on X from Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella on an economic concept known as Jevons Paradox sought to counter fears that the emergence of China's DeepSeek large language model and chatbot would pop the artificial-intelligence bubble.
微軟首席執行官薩提亞·納德拉在X上的深夜發帖，討論一個名為傑文斯悖論的經濟概念，試圖回應人們對中國DeepSeek大型語言模型和聊天機器人的出現可能會引發人工智能泡沫破裂的擔憂。
The mere fact that Nadella posted it shortly before 1 a.m. Eastern time Monday morning points to just how worried the tech industry is about DeepSeek.
納德拉在周一早上東部時間凌晨1點前不久發帖，恰恰說明了科技行業對DeepSeek的擔憂有多麼嚴重。
Market panic set in as social media posts suggested that DeepSeek developed its model for less than $6 million, far less than the more than $1 billion it costs to train some models.
市場恐慌加劇，社交媒體發帖暗示DeepSeek以不到600萬的價格開發其模型，遠低於一些模型訓練超過10億的成本。
Nvidia lost nearly $600 billion in market value on Monday, the biggest one-day drop ever for a publicly traded company, as investors worried that companies are overspending as they seek to develop and train their AI models.
英偉達周一的市值損失接近6000億，這是公開交易公司單日最大跌幅，投資者擔心公司在開發和訓練其人工智能模型時過度消費。
Closer reading of the technical paper where the low figure first appeared shows it doesn't include the cost of prior research. But even if DeepSeek had only cost $6 million, that might not be as big a problem for the rest of the industry as the market reaction implies.
仔細閱讀技術論文，低成本首次出現的地方表明並未包括先前研究的成本。但即使DeepSeek只花費了600萬，這對行業的其他部分可能也並不像市場反應所暗示的那樣大問題。
Named for William Stanley Jevons, a 19th-century English economist, the Jevons Paradox posits that lowering the cost of using fuel doesn't reduce demand for it, but instead causes it to rise.
傑文斯悖論以19世紀英國經濟學家威廉·斯坦利·傑文斯的名字命名，該理論認為降低燃料使用成本並不會減少對其的需求，反而會造成需求上升。
"It is wholly a confusion of ideas to suppose that the economical use of fuel is equivalent to a diminished consumption. The very contrary is the truth," he wrote in his 1865 book, The Coal Question.
他在1865年的著作《煤的問提》中寫道："認為燃料的經濟使用等同於減少消費是一種完全的觀念混淆。事實恰恰相反。"
The idea has been applied to other commodities, from iron to electricity and energy as a whole.
這個概念已被應用於其他商品，從鐵到電力以及整體能源。
Nadella believes the concept can be applied to AI models as well. As he wrote in his post, "Jevons paradox strikes again! As AI gets more efficient and accessible, we will see its use skyrocket, turning it into a commodity we just can't get enough of."
納德拉認為這個概念也可以應用於人工智能模型。正如他在發帖中所寫，"傑文斯悖論再次出現！隨著人工智能變得更加高效和可及，我們將看到其使用量激增，變成我們無法滿足的商品。"
Microsoft was spared much of the stock market carnage on Monday, falling just 2%, versus Nvidia's 17% plunge. That could signal that Nadella was onto something when he invoked a long-dead economist to make his point.
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作者：安妮塔·漢密爾頓
A late-night post on X from Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella on an economic concept known as Jevons Paradox sought to counter fears that the emergence of China's DeepSeek large language model and chatbot would pop the artificial-intelligence bubble.
微軟首席執行官薩提亞·納德拉在X上的深夜發帖，討論一個名為傑文斯悖論的經濟概念，試圖回應人們對中國DeepSeek大型語言模型和聊天機器人的出現可能會引發人工智能泡沫破裂的擔憂。
The mere fact that Nadella posted it shortly before 1 a.m. Eastern time Monday morning points to just how worried the tech industry is about DeepSeek.
納德拉在周一早上東部時間凌晨1點前不久發帖，恰恰說明了科技行業對DeepSeek的擔憂有多麼嚴重。
Market panic set in as social media posts suggested that DeepSeek developed its model for less than $6 million, far less than the more than $1 billion it costs to train some models.
市場恐慌加劇，社交媒體發帖暗示DeepSeek以不到600萬的價格開發其模型，遠低於一些模型訓練超過10億的成本。
Nvidia lost nearly $600 billion in market value on Monday, the biggest one-day drop ever for a publicly traded company, as investors worried that companies are overspending as they seek to develop and train their AI models.
英偉達周一的市值損失接近6000億，這是公開交易公司單日最大跌幅，投資者擔心公司在開發和訓練其人工智能模型時過度消費。
Closer reading of the technical paper where the low figure first appeared shows it doesn't include the cost of prior research. But even if DeepSeek had only cost $6 million, that might not be as big a problem for the rest of the industry as the market reaction implies.
仔細閱讀技術論文，低成本首次出現的地方表明並未包括先前研究的成本。但即使DeepSeek只花費了600萬，這對行業的其他部分可能也並不像市場反應所暗示的那樣大問題。
Named for William Stanley Jevons, a 19th-century English economist, the Jevons Paradox posits that lowering the cost of using fuel doesn't reduce demand for it, but instead causes it to rise.
傑文斯悖論以19世紀英國經濟學家威廉·斯坦利·傑文斯的名字命名，該理論認為降低燃料使用成本並不會減少對其的需求，反而會造成需求上升。
"It is wholly a confusion of ideas to suppose that the economical use of fuel is equivalent to a diminished consumption. The very contrary is the truth," he wrote in his 1865 book, The Coal Question.
他在1865年的著作《煤的問提》中寫道："認為燃料的經濟使用等同於減少消費是一種完全的觀念混淆。事實恰恰相反。"
The idea has been applied to other commodities, from iron to electricity and energy as a whole.
這個概念已被應用於其他商品，從鐵到電力以及整體能源。
Nadella believes the concept can be applied to AI models as well. As he wrote in his post, "Jevons paradox strikes again! As AI gets more efficient and accessible, we will see its use skyrocket, turning it into a commodity we just can't get enough of."
納德拉認為這個概念也可以應用於人工智能模型。正如他在發帖中所寫，"傑文斯悖論再次出現！隨著人工智能變得更加高效和可及，我們將看到其使用量激增，變成我們無法滿足的商品。"
Microsoft was spared much of the stock market carnage on Monday, falling just 2%, versus Nvidia's 17% plunge. That could signal that Nadella was onto something when he invoked a long-dead economist to make his point.
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