#1: Author: 玄武六, Posted: 2011-6-24 11:50
加拿大统计局人口数据：单位（千）
2006：32,576.1； 2007：32,929.7；2008：33,316.0；
2009：33,720.2；2010：34,108.8
也就是说加拿大平均每年增加38.3万人。另外数据显示加拿大有300万公民常住海外，单香港就有30万加拿大公民，这些在都算在加拿大统计局的人口数据中。考虑到人口移民或者回流，在加拿大境内每年增加的人口要大大的少于38.3万。
另外加拿大每年新建房屋20万左右，平均每个房屋容纳2.5人，也就是可以容纳 50万人，所以结论是 供给过剩！
但是现在房屋价格在飞涨，原因又是什么呢？
Fear and greed fueled with low interest rates driving RE price up in Canada.
也就是说要买房在观望的人已经失去耐心，恐惧日后房价越来越高，加上目前的低利率诱惑，开始出手购买了；而那些投资客因为贪婪，想赚更多捂着不出售，这导致在短时间内供不应求，价格暴涨。
目前加拿大人借贷达到历史高点，通货膨胀也会越来越严重，只要利率上升一点点，就会成为压死骆驼的最后一颗稻草。房价泡沫在未来几年内必破。
所有数据来自 www.statcan.gc.ca/star...t-eng.html
#2: Author: 一条龙, Posted: 2011-6-24 12:01
玄武六 _BBCODE_WROTE: 加拿大统计局人口数据：单位（千）
2006：32,576.1； 2007：32,929.7；
2010：34,108.8
2008：33,316.0；
2009：33,720.2；
也就是说平均每年增加38.3万人。
另外加拿大每年新建房屋20万左右，平均每个房屋容纳2.5人，也就是可以容纳 50万人，所以结论是 供给过剩！
最后我的结论是: Fear and greed fueled with low interest rates driving RE price up in Canada.
所有数据来自 www.statcan.gc.ca/star...t-eng.html
放心，洗洗睡吧。建商不傻，他们比你我更精，没有需求，没有市场渴求，他们会停手的，不会供给过剩。等待建商傻乎乎地建得太过多了，半价卖给你的可能性不存在。
#3: Author: 一条龙, Posted: 2011-6-24 12:13
一条龙 _BBCODE_WROTE: 玄武六 _BBCODE_WROTE: 加拿大统计局人口数据：单位（千）
2006：32,576.1； 2007：32,929.7；
2010：34,108.8
2008：33,316.0；
2009：33,720.2；
也就是说平均每年增加38.3万人。
另外加拿大每年新建房屋20万左右，平均每个房屋容纳2.5人，也就是可以容纳 50万人，所以结论是 供给过剩！
最后我的结论是: Fear and greed fueled with low interest rates driving RE price up in Canada.
所有数据来自 www.statcan.gc.ca/star...t-eng.html
放心，洗洗睡吧。建商不傻，他们比你我更精，没有需求，没有市场渴求，他们会停手的，不会供给过剩。等待建商傻乎乎地建得太过多了，半价卖给你的可能性不存在。
再说，现在的建商基本上是拿到了合约、定金才开始施工建房的（先卖后建），5%的下降空间都没有，更别想降价50%了。
#4: Author: 一条龙, Posted: 2011-6-24 12:22
楼主，你这个内容是宏观，不叫做微观分析，别光是为了和我作对就起那么一个不伦不类的题目。
#5: Author: 小小风, Posted: 2011-6-24 12:29
一条龙 _BBCODE_WROTE:
楼主，你这个内容是宏观，不叫做微观分析，别光是为了和我作对就起那么一个不伦不类的题目。
我也觉得这次你是对的。
#6: Author: 玄武六, Posted: 2011-6-24 12:33
影响房价最大的就是 CMHC(加拿大房屋贷款公司）， 看历史上CMHC的规定和银行的利率，再看这些年房价走势，就可以看出加拿大就在走美国的老路，CMHC 搞不好就要破产，就像美国的两房那样要纳税人来埋单了。
It has always been the ability to access more credit that has allowed house prices to grow like they have. And how have Canadians been able to access more credit? The good friends at CMHC, of course.
1954- CMHC introduced Mortgage Loan Insurance, taking on mortgage risks with a 25% down payment, making home ownership more accessible to Canadians.
1954-1990- Somewhere along this time, 10% became minimum down payment.
1990- 5% was introduced as a trial run, then officially accepted in 1999.
2001 – Genworth (GE Capital) enters the Canadian mortgage insurance market
2001 – CIBC offered below-prime mortgages.
Pre-2003 – CMHC: 5% down with price limit depending on area, 25 yr amortizations, no price limit if 10% or more down
Sep 2003 – CMHC: 5% down, 25 yr amortizations, removed all price ceiling limitations. Now any mortgage would be insured regardless of the cost.
Mar 2004 – CMHC: Flex-Down product allows 5% down to be borrowed and 1.5% closing costs to be borrowed (essentially zero down, but 95% insured)
Mar 2006 – AIG enters the Canadian mortgage insurance
market
Mar 2006 – CMHC: 0% down, 30 yr amortizations (Genworth announces 35 yr amortizations)
Jun 2006 – CMHC: 0% down, 35 yr amortizations, interest only payments allowed for 10 years
Nov 2006 – CMHC: 0% down, 40 yr amortizations, interest only payments allowed for 10 years
Oct 2008 – CMHC: 5% down, 35 yr amortizations, investors need 20% down.
April 2010- CMHC did some minor tightening of their guidelines.
Mar 2011- CMHC: 5% down, 30 yr amortizations
Mortgage credit growth averaged 9% from 2002 to 2009 whiles wages barely moved.
#7: Author: 玄武六, Posted: 2011-6-24 12:37
一条龙 _BBCODE_WROTE:
楼主，你这个内容是宏观，不叫做微观分析，别光是为了和我作对就起那么一个不伦不类的题目。
对不起大家，题目错了，已更正题目。
#8: Author: 一条龙, Posted: 2011-6-24 12:38
从劳工、材料、建造成本、地税、持有成本及利息等角度去分析推导，叫做微观分析。
#9: Author: 小小风, Posted: 2011-6-24 16:34
Mark Carney is issuing a sharp warning that the housing market may be overheating, as his ultra-low interest rates, combined with too much optimism on the part of buyers, fuels prices in the country’s hottest markets.
Even as growth in mortgage credit has started to slow and prices are expected to moderate, investment in residential properties nationwide is now near peak levels, Mr. Carney said in a speech to the Vancouver Board of Trade.
#10: Author: commonsense, Posted: 2011-6-24 16:40
没有傻的建商， 只有傻的买家。
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