文章內容
2013-03-16 23:22:00Home resales increased slightly in Canada in January
▲ Bottlenecks in distribution networks have pushed the price of Canadian oil lower relative to both North American and European
benchmarks.
▲ Home resales increased slightly by 1.3% in Canada in January from December 2012 (on a seasonally adjusted basis).
▲ Relative to January 2012, (unadjusted) resales were down 5.2%, marking a significant moderation in the year-over-year rate of
decline in the past several months (the rate was -17% in December 2012).
▲ Among Canada’s largest markets, Edmonton registered the biggest monthly sales increase in January (+9.6%), followed by Toronto
(+5.2%) and Vancouver (+4.7%). Calgary (-2.1%), Montreal (-2.1%) and Ottawa (-8.0%) all saw declines.
▲ At the national level, the number of homes newly listed for sale in January increased by 1.6% from December, the first monthly
increase since September 2012.
▲ The sales-to-new listings ratio remained unchanged from December at 0.50 – still in the range consistent with a balanced market.
▲ The number of months’ inventory of homes listed for sale in Canada edged lower to 6.6 from 6.7 in December.
▲ The national composite MLS Home Price Index (HPI) eased for seventh consecutive time but at the slowest monthly rate (-
0.06%) since declines began in July 2012. The pace of year-over-year increase continued to moderate in January (+3.1%).
▲ At the local level, the MLS HPI declined in Vancouver, the Lower Mainland and Toronto between December and January. The
MLS HPI increased in the Fraser Valley, Calgary, Regina and Montreal.
▲ Relative to a year ago, the MLS HPI fell in Vancouver (-2.8%) and the Lower Mainland (-1.9%) but was up modestly in Toronto
(+3.8%), Montreal (+2.6%) and the Fraser Valley (+0.7%), and more significantly so in Regina (+8.8%) and Calgary
(+8.0%).
▲ Canada’s housing market activity appears to have stabilized at the start of 2013, albeit at a lower plane than what prevailed a
year ago. While it may be premature to pass definitive judgement, the latest stream of data suggest that last year’s slide in resales
has halted in prominent markets such as Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal. We expect market activity generally to remain
subdued this year in Canada; yet, we believe that there is scope for some mild strengthening from recent levels as the negative
effects of the mortgage insurance rule changes further dissipate. We project home resales to decline by 3.1% in Canada in 2013,
and average home prices to ease slightly by 1.5%.
▲ Bottlenecks in distribution networks have pushed the price of Canadian oil lower relative to both North American and European
benchmarks.
▲ Home resales increased slightly by 1.3% in Canada in January from December 2012 (on a seasonally adjusted basis).
▲ Relative to January 2012, (unadjusted) resales were down 5.2%, marking a significant moderation in the year-over-year rate of
decline in the past several months (the rate was -17% in December 2012).
▲ Among Canada’s largest markets, Edmonton registered the biggest monthly sales increase in January (+9.6%), followed by Toronto
(+5.2%) and Vancouver (+4.7%). Calgary (-2.1%), Montreal (-2.1%) and Ottawa (-8.0%) all saw declines.
▲ At the national level, the number of homes newly listed for sale in January increased by 1.6% from December, the first monthly
increase since September 2012.
▲ The sales-to-new listings ratio remained unchanged from December at 0.50 – still in the range consistent with a balanced market.
▲ The number of months’ inventory of homes listed for sale in Canada edged lower to 6.6 from 6.7 in December.
▲ The national composite MLS Home Price Index (HPI) eased for seventh consecutive time but at the slowest monthly rate (-
0.06%) since declines began in July 2012. The pace of year-over-year increase continued to moderate in January (+3.1%).
▲ At the local level, the MLS HPI declined in Vancouver, the Lower Mainland and Toronto between December and January. The
MLS HPI increased in the Fraser Valley, Calgary, Regina and Montreal.
▲ Relative to a year ago, the MLS HPI fell in Vancouver (-2.8%) and the Lower Mainland (-1.9%) but was up modestly in Toronto
(+3.8%), Montreal (+2.6%) and the Fraser Valley (+0.7%), and more significantly so in Regina (+8.8%) and Calgary
(+8.0%).
▲ Canada’s housing market activity appears to have stabilized at the start of 2013, albeit at a lower plane than what prevailed a
year ago. While it may be premature to pass definitive judgement, the latest stream of data suggest that last year’s slide in resales
has halted in prominent markets such as Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal. We expect market activity generally to remain
subdued this year in Canada; yet, we believe that there is scope for some mild strengthening from recent levels as the negative
effects of the mortgage insurance rule changes further dissipate. We project home resales to decline by 3.1% in Canada in 2013,
and average home prices to ease slightly by 1.5%.
