長期投資 buy&hold

文章內容

我同意短期買賣股票是一種零和交易， 和賭博差不多， 稍微好點是虧損可以抵稅

但是長期投資買入後持有， 太多藍籌股的股息增長都可以跑過通貨膨脹的。

比如JNJ 股息率3.45%， 從Jan 3, 2000每季度0.14 增加到Oct 21, 2010的0.54

charting.shareholder.c...lang=en-US

如果覺得JNJ股價沒漲，COP 股息率3.38%， 1/26/00每季度0.19， 10/06/10每季度0。55

當然石油股是周期性的， 過去10年的表現未必可以保持下去， 可以考慮 PG 股息率2.97%, 從Jan 19, 2000每季度0.16 增加到Oct 22, 2010的0.4818.

加拿大股票也不錯， RY股息率3.88%， 從Jan 25, 2000每季度0.135 增加到Oct 26, 2010的0.50.

Telus RY股息率4.5%， 從10-Mar-00每季度0.35 增加到10-Dec-10的0.525。

中國的也不錯， 比如LFC(China Life Insurance), 年息從2006的$0.08增加到2010的$1.366.

CHL年息從2006的$0.08增加到2010的$1.366.

除去股息， 從google finance上查到這些股票過去10年的投資回報率分別是
JNJ 26.89%
COP 145.5%
PG 78.48%
RY 102.59%
T 12.36%
CHL 67.12%
LFC 601.37%

當然這樣的回報沒法讓我們發財，不錯的分紅，長期投資幾乎不用費神管理，我覺得還是可以滿意的， 另外考慮到股息分紅的稅率優惠， 跑贏通貨膨脹還是有不少把握。如果願意費神每季度賣點cover call，每年額外有5%還是很容易的。

還有神奇的FTS(Fortis Inc), 買入機會一轉眼就錯過了.

Stock Price History*

	High	Low	Close
2009	29.24	21.52	28.68
2008	29.94	20.70	24.59
2007	30.00	24.50	28.99
2006	30.00	20.36	29.77
2005	25.64	17.00	24.27
2004	17.75	14.23	17.38
2003	15.24	11.63	14.73
2002	13.28	10.76	13.13
2001	11.89	8.56	11.74
2000	9.19	6.88	9.00
1999	9.93	7.29	7.85
1998	12.03	8.75	9.56
1997	10.63	7.83	10.50
1996	8.68	6.75	8.50
1995	6.94	6.06	6.81
1994	7.50	5.94	6.44
1993	7.31	5.88	7.16
1992	6.35	5.31	6.13
1991	6.06	5.25	5.97
1990	5.69	4.85	5.41
1989	5.63	4.88	5.60
1988	5.06	4.31	5.00
1987	5.44	4.16	4.75

www.fortisinc.com/inve...yChart.gif


下面是轉別人的分析和統計：
Medtronic, Inc. (MDT) develops, manufactures, and sells device-based medical therapies worldwide. This dividend champion has raised distributions for 33 years in a row. Returns on equity have remained above 19% for the majority of the past decade. Overall the ROE increased steadily over the past decade. ROE - 22.55% (analysis)

Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) provides technology-based outsourcing solutions to employers, and vehicle retailers and manufacturers. This dividend aristocrat has raised dividends for 35 consecutive years. Over the past decade the Return on Equity has remained in a tight range between 17% and 26%. ROE - 22.43% (analysis)

Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. operates retail stores in various formats worldwide. This S&P Dividend Aristocrat has consistently increased dividends every year for 36 years. Over the past 20 years the Return on Equity has firmly remained above 20%. ROE - 21.08% (analysis)

McDonald’s Corporation (MCD), together with its subsidiaries, franchises and operates McDonald’s restaurants in the food service industry worldwide. The company is also a dividend aristocrat, which has been consistently increasing its dividends for 33 consecutive years. The ROE has been increasing since it hit a low of 14 in 2002. Recently it hit 30%, and has stayed above that level for two consecutive years. ROE - 33.20% (analysis)

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) engages in the research and development, manufacture, and sale of various products in the health care field worldwide. JNJ has been consistently increasing its dividend for 48 consecutive years. Over the past decade the ROE has remained largely between 25% and 30%, with the exception of 2006 and 2007. ROE - 26.35% (analysis)

The Coca-Cola Company (KO) manufactures, distributes, and markets nonalcoholic beverage concentrates and syrups worldwide. Coca-Cola has paid uninterrupted dividends on its common stock since 1893 and increased payments to common shareholders every year for 48 years. The Return on Equity has been in a decline after hitting a high in 2001. It has stabilized since 2005 at a very impressive 30%. ROE - 30.15% (analysis)

United Technologies Corporation (UTX) provides technology products and services to the building systems and aerospace industries worldwide. The company is also a dividend achiever, which has been consistently increasing its dividends for 16 consecutive years. Over the past decade the return on equity has remained largely between a low of 20% in 2005 and a high of 25% in 2008. ROE - 21.28% (analysis)


Kimberly-Clark Corporation (KMB), together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and marketing of health and hygiene products worldwide. This dividend aristocrat has boosted distributions for 38 years in a row. The return on equity has fluctuated between a low of 25.70% in 2006 and a high of 39.4% in 2009. Over the past few years it has remained above 30%, which is impressive. ROE - 40.59%. (analysis)

Abbott Laboratories (ABT) engages in the discovery, development, manufacture, and sale of health care products worldwide. The company is a component of the S&P 500 and the dividend aristocrat indexes. Over the past decade the ROE has largely remained between 12% and 28% after falling from its 2000 highs over 34%. ROE - 28.49% (analysis)

Colgate-Palmolive Company (CL), together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets consumer products worldwide. It operates in two segments, Oral, Personal, and Home Care; and Pet Nutrition. Over the past decade the Return on Equity has been truly phenomenal, having never fallen below 80% since 2000. This dividend champion has increased dividends for 47 years in a row. ROE - 97.74% (analysis)